A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
