Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
